Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
