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UrbanFocus

‘A Strategic Error’: How the Reform Political Machine Faltered in a Wales Special Election.

Yuliia Bond balances dual employment, cares for two children, and is studying at university. This past fall, she also found time to confront Reform UK when it sought to win the Caerphilly constituency byelection.

Bond, a refugee from Ukraine who has settled in south Wales, said she could not stay quiet as Reform aimed to gain the parliamentary seat in the Senedd, the parliament of Wales.

“People from our Ukrainian community spoke up,” Bond commented. “We challenged the misinformation because we wanted to prevent our neighbours from being deceived into feeling anger towards us. I hoped to avoid people becoming hostile to us because of lies. So I voiced my concerns and others did, too.

“Reform UK attempted to create fear and division with tactics used not only in the UK, but by far-right political parties all over Europe and across the world. The rhetoric they used in Caerphilly didn’t feel local. They felt borrowed – like someone replicated a script from another country and posted it through our doors.”

A Confident Campaign Meets Grassroots Resistance

The party, associated with Nigel Farage, was certain it could win the byelection, particularly since Labour, the dominant party in Wales for a century, seemed to be declining rapidly. An energetic campaign by the Welsh nationalists, Plaid Cymru – and individuals such as Bond – kept out the right-leaning party.

“Their biggest mistake was presuming that people here have little independent thought,” Bond argued. “They thought nobody would check the facts. They believed that refugees are not just vulnerable, but somehow stupid. That is not true. We may have fled a war, but we are not stupid. We comprehend policies.”

One of Reform’s key claims was that the Welsh government’s sanctuary nation scheme showed both it and Plaid supported a “mass immigration agenda” and that “asylum seekers” were receiving “special privileges”. The claim did not hold water – more than 80% of the nation of sanctuary funds had been spent on supporting Ukrainian refugees.

Bond noted: “When I saw the campaign literature, all I could see was a blatant attempt to divide people, to blame a small group, and increase hate in a place that had been hospitable to us.

“It failed in Caerphilly because the Ukrainian community and refugees from various backgrounds are not outsiders. We are integrated into the community. People know us.

“They see us at schools, in shops, at work, giving our time. They know what we add. The portrayal in the leaflet simply didn’t match reality. Most residents could sense that something was off. It felt like manipulation, not truth.”

The Result and Enduring Lessons

Bond spoke in the “gratitude orchard” in Caerphilly, established by members of the Ukrainian community as a token of appreciation for the warm welcome they have received.

She said the presence of Reform had placed a burden on Ukrainian people in the area. “Those in a difficult position should not have to bear this weight. Yet, during the election, we had to raise our voices first. Only later did support come – from local residents, politicians from various parties, and local media.”

There are full Senedd elections in May when Reform has hopes of the largest party in Wales.

Bond said people opposing Reform in Wales in May and in other elections across the UK had to challenge the party’s messages swiftly and with certainty.

“As a Ukrainian, I know how dangerous disinformation can be. The war in Ukraine did not start with weapons. It started with false narratives, propaganda and lies that paved the way for violence.
“Disinformation must be countered promptly, strongly and clearly, because hate spreads faster than facts. The two months of that byelection were genuinely exhausting. We just had to survive it. But we endured together, and that is why the hate campaign failed in Caerphilly.”

The Successful Campaign’s Perspective

For Lindsay Whittle, the victorious Plaid candidate, the period following the byelection was a whirlwind. Attention from the public was immense.

Whittle said both Reform campaigners and their opponents had thought the party might win decisively. She said: “The thought was that they’d spend vast amounts of money and defeat us.”

So how did they stop the juggernaut? One reason, Whittle thinks, is that Plaid ran an upbeat, positive campaign. “Avoid attacking anyone personally because people dislike that. Keep the message positive. Try and bring together people.

“People in Caerphilly have friends of various nationalities and they don’t like people threatening their friends. Voters recognise that without newcomers coming to this country, you’re not going to have an NHS or social care. I think Reform misjudged the people of Caerphilly.”

While Whittle featured on the headlines, an intense local campaign was under way in the background. Dedicated party members canvassed at thousands of doors.

“We think it was the crucial byelection we’ve ever fought,” one campaigner said. The victory was attributed to good policies – and people who are passionate about them deeply.

Local Observations and Academic Analysis

A local editor was surprised at how divisive the campaign was. “We had communities turning on each other, campaign posters removed, really sharp debates online. I was raised in this area and I know everyone’s kind so to see that side come out was a surprise.”

The decisive moment is believed to have been a televised debate when an audience member confronted the Reform candidate, stating that people with family members not born in the UK did not feel welcome since Reform had arrived.

“That was someone from our community who had a mixed race family explicitly stating the impact all this language had,” the editor said. “Caerphilly isn’t the most multicultural of places but we’ve always been open to people from overseas. That was the line in the sand.”

A politics lecturer and native of the area provided a particular perspective on the byelection.

He said Plaid was extremely successful in presenting the election as a direct contest between two parties – but this will be more difficult at the Senedd elections in May when a new representational system is introduced.

“It tended to be somewhat ill-informed or, at times, condescending. But Caerphilly isn’t some post-industrial wasteland passively absorbing whatever political winds blow from across the border – it has its own political traditions and, like Wales more broadly, it has its own character and can’t simply be interpreted through the perspective of what is happening in England. It was satisfying to see my home town defy those lazy assumptions.”
The writer

Cynthia Campbell

Urban planner and writer passionate about sustainable city development and community engagement.

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